Repaso veraniego / Summer review / Перечитывая летом
Repaso veraniego / Summer review / Перечитывая летом
Con algún oro de por medio
ps Algunas se han quedado sin postor, pero otras… 443 libras esterlinas + comisiones
“Como dan pasta pues ya sabeis como funciona esto….
Mañana me hago una pagina me pongo a dar pasta aqui y alli y tendre buenos amigos que me defenderan a palos si hace falta… esos amigos son los mismos que se tirarian a ahogarme si no repartiese mis beneficios entre ellos.”
Economic wars and hot military wars increase debt and commodity prices. Gold and silver will see another rally, probably one that surprises almost everyone.
Gold vs Grandma
Let me start with a observation, that while obvious, is seldom mentioned – An ounce of gold purchased in 1990 is today worth exactly, an ounce of gold, while a dollar saved in 1990 is today worth about 33 cents. In early 1990 a barrel of oil cost $21 dollars (19 barrels for 1 ounce of Gold) – today a barrel of oil costs $60 dollars (20 barrels for 1 ounce of Gold). Even diehard believers talk about Gold’s value in Dollars – It’s going to $3000.00 they proclaim. That would probably only mean that the Dollar has fallen against other currencies.Would it not be better to see an ounce of Gold go to 60 barrels of Oil?
All these prognostications one sees about Gold going to $5000.00 and beyond are actually propaganda for the Dollar. The implication is that Gold is just a vehicle to obtain more Dollars and if it did go to $5000.00 you would sell it and declare victory. Gold could go to $5000.00 USD and still only be worth 20 Barrels of oil.
We only judge currencies against one another – like kids in the tub comparing rubber duckies bobbing up and down while ignoring the declining water level. Meanwhile, central planning has pulled the drain plug and added more bubble bath. Not to worry were told, the water isn’t going down – the tub is getting bigger.
There are many good charts on the oil – gold ratio, what I cannot find is a Global Gold index. A real barometer of what Gold is worth in paper currencies on a truly global basis. It would illustrate that Gold’s exchange rate against paper is far more stable than it appears when compared to the U.S. Dollar or any single currency.
Consider the last twelve months (March 2014 through March 2015). The US Dollar Index has gone from 80 to 100 – a 25% move, while in the same period Gold in Dollars went from $1310 to $1200, an 8% move. Meanwhile over the same time span, Gold in Swiss Franc’s declined only 0.55%, and in the Singapore Dollar and the Argentinean peso it moved even less while in the Euro it went up 6% from €940 to €1100 euro. So what did Gold really do against global paper in the last year? As best I can surmise, gold actually went nowhere against paper. Better stated, paper went nowhere against Gold.
A global valuation will become more important as the so called “competitive devaluations” accelerate. Call me suspicious, but they appear very coordinated to be competitive, maybe it is just a coincident that they take turns with Q.E. If they are indeed taking turns it would appear the Fed is up next. Orchestrated global gyrations require a better valuation method, at least until we arrive at the mother of all debasements – Maximus Printus – Global Q.E.
If nothing else a Global Gold Index would provide spine stiffening support for those valiant souls still holding leveraged gold positions. Many of us have no parachute.
UBS believes something is coming down the pike – they just raised margin requirements on Gold by 25%. The last time they raised margins the Swiss Franc peg was cancelled. Mish has an interesting story about UBS predicting more Q.E.
Here at Hide-It we also believe something is coming down the pike. Not sure what it is, but it appears to be disguised as a tiny grandma – traveling with a boatload of rubber duckies. Let’s hope she’s got enough bubble bath.
Have no fear, Grandma’s here.
Buy it. Hide it. Wait.
Un poco más de lo mismo. A veces el sentimiento contrario ayuda 🙂
No me hago responsable de lo que Mr. Christenson a través de Eric “siempreigual” Sprott elucubran jeje
November 3, 2014
Embry: “I’m focused on silver, which is something I strongly believe represents an unbelievable opportunity. Right now the open interest is at all-time highs, despite the price having been pounded for the past six months on the back end of a 3 1/2 year price decline of nearly 70 percent….
“Normally when there is a price decline like we have recently seen on the Comex, the longs are flushed out and the shorts reap their profits. But despite continued pressure on the price of silver, the longs are not capitulating. If anything they are digging in and the open interest is growing, which is unheard of.
The open interest in the December trading contract, which matures in 17 trading days, dwarfs the available inventory on the exchange. So it will be very interesting to see how this situation unfolds. When you put that into the context of the fact that silver is now trading dramatically below what it takes to extract an ounce from the ground for a pure silver producer, it really demonstrates the absurdity of the situation.
With a price that has been under so much pressure, this would normally suggest that silver demand has been weak and the market is being overwhelmed by supply, but that’s not the case. The demand for silver coins from the U.S. Mint has risen dramatically and there has been continued demand from the industrial side, which takes up the lion’s share of supply.
People have to remember that in the aftermath of World War II there were massive inventories of silver in the world. And following the Hunt Brothers attempt to corner the market in the 1970s, above ground inventories remained huge. But all of these above ground inventories have been absorbed as physical demand has outstripped mine supply for many, many years.
Also, the majority of silver mine supply comes as a result of base metals mining. With the world now moving inexorably toward a recession/depression, and with excess supply everywhere, the demand for base metals is going to decline sharply. This will curtail production and mean there will be less silver byproduct.
So I see an extremely positive supply/demand situation building here at a price that is remarkably discounted for silver. What doesn’t get discussed is the fact that not too long ago roughly 1/3 of the industrial demand for silver was related to photography. But all of that demand from photography has disappeared and been replaced by solar demand, medicinal demand, etc.. And these new sources of demand continue to grow well beyond what we used to see from photography.
But because the paper manipulation is beyond remarkable, silver remains as undervalued an asset as I have ever seen. As an example, in the last 135 trading days the silver price has declined in the thinly traded access market 130 times at the open. So to be clear, in the early hours of the east coast of the United States silver has declined at the opening of trading 130 out of the last 135 trading days. That is preposterous. And some of these declines have been precipitous.
This is purely manipulation by high-frequency and algorithm programs and it sets the tone for each trading day and permits the powers that be to keep the pressure on the price. This is all part of how they attempt to keep the public away from gold and silver. But gold and silver are the only real money and it remains the arch enemy of the failing fiat currency system. So the central bankers are in overdrive here trying to discredit gold and silver.
Sadly the Western governments and central banks have failed their citizens and are now trying one last time to keep things afloat. Unfortunately they are going to fail, and all investors can do as that day of failure rapidly approaches is to own physical gold and silver in order to protect themselves. This is the most dangerous time in world history, both economically and financially — strictly on the leverage in the financial system — and the sad truth is that I don’t even think we are going to recognize the world when this is over.”
Una fuente de información más. Relativizando la visión un tanto extrema de Sprott y colegas…aunque me quedo con la duda de la ecuación producción-demanda-coste-beneficio